Depopulating economy = falling wages?
In Japan's depopulating economy, productivity is falling—not rising—and so are wages.
U.S. inflation data call for modest—not major—Fed easing
The latest data, and still-accommodative financial conditions, suggest the Fed does not have to cut rates aggressively.
Surveys We Trust
Reliable surveys confirm the Euro Zone economy is not recovering.
Time to lose sleep over world trade slowdown?
We are on the alert for more bad global economic news in the months ahead if the drop in world trade continues.
Webinar: Fed to the rescue — whether needed or not?
Is the Fed being prescient or panicky? Join us for a webinar with Jim O'Sullivan on June 26.
When the jobless rate is meaningless…
The record low German unemployment rate does not reflect a truly tight supply of labor.
Draghi’s little fibs
Practically speaking, no one should expect any ECB tightening at all until some time in 2022.
A new way to read HFE
HFE Notes and Snapshots are now available to subscribers via Bloomberg.
China will not bow to U.S. bullying
Team Trump has set off the mother of all trade wars with China by making a series of gross miscalculations.
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On the most recent episode of FS Insider, @osullivanEcon of @hifreqec discusses current #trade talks, potential presidential #impeachment and the probability of #recession within the next year. https://t.co/R9GhDPUEO0
Don't get excited about an August surge in household spending in Japan: It's all about consumers advancing big-ticket purchases to beat the October 1 sales tax hike. With real wages shrinking along with the population, consumer spending has no where to go but down.
If the Yanks don't get them, the pigs will: African swine fever is a bigger threat to China's economy than U.S. trade policy. https://t.co/trutOknfkW
On top of Brexit uncertainty, the current account gap in the UK suggests sterling may be prone to a crash. The deficit for Q2 was appallingly huge after a record Q1 gap.
Was on @SquawkCNBC ahead of the employment data with @LindseyPiegza @BeckyQuick @andrewrsorkin @grassosteve
https://t.co/Ak6Ly7vj9W