Lower payroll gains from a maturing labor market?
The moderation in U.S. payroll growth in 2019 likely reflects a maturing labor market—one that is reaching full employment. But where does this leave Fed policy?
Webinar Replay: Calendar changes, economic woes increase?
In the new year, the headwinds to global economic growth—trade uncertainties, rising inventories, stopped out monetary policy—are set to become even more daunting.
Technicals versus fundamentals
Technicals can be rationalized as a combination of artistry, technology and pattern recognition.
Is the U.S.-China spat to blame for the world’s trade woes?
We do not believe the global headwinds to prosperity will be eliminated by a rollback of tariffs between the United States and China.
Webinar: Brexit uncertainty strangles Britain’s economy
Carl Weinberg will break down what financial market participants need to now about BTU, BEU and PBS -- Brexit transition uncertainty, Brexit election uncertainty and post-Brexit stagflation.
How much cash is under your mattress?
Is it possible that low interest rates are driving deposits out of banks and into cash? If so, what does it mean for the banking system?
Does China’s economy need stimulus?
China's economy doesn't need stimulus to offset the impact of the U.S. trade war. The bigger threat: African swine fever.
To hike or to ease? That is the BoC’s question
Is the Bank of Canada more likely to hike interest rates, as slack evaporates, or to cut interest rates, following the Fed?
Exaggerated U.S. recession fears?
We are skeptical of the signal from the yield curve now given the likely distortion from non-U.S. as well as U.S. QE and negative bond yields in much of the world.
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We are entering a new world of deficit spending and central bank financing of it.
70% of respondents polled in HFE's webinar today expect the coronavirus to cause a drop in global GDP bigger than during the 2008-09 financial crisis.
10:30EDT Webinar: HFE has mined the hard data for coronavirus shock precedents—natural disasters, financial crises, etc—to gauge the potential impact. We'll also be analyzing the effectiveness of government and central bank policies introduced so far.
https://t.co/iHBVN31ty7
Market conditions today may be a signal that financial crisis and economic crisis have become irrevocably entangled with epidemiological crisis.
https://t.co/TfgWzAt6aN
As we feel sorry for ourselves over declines in equities and our shaky financial systems, let us remember there is a place called Japan, where equity prices remain lower than they were in 1988, and where the economy languishes in a secular depression caused by depopulation.