HFE Insights


Carl Weinberg for Citizens Bank

Carl Weinberg's presentation on China's economic outlook.

The meaning of negative interest rates

Yields on 10-year JGBs and Bunds are approaching zero.  But the meaning of near-negative interest rates is different in Japan than in Germany.

Sad day for the global economy

While the United States fights a futile trade war with China, the rest of the world loses.

Whose inflation forecast do you believe?

The ECB's plan for ending asset purchases hinges on a questionable CPI forecast.

What is unsustainable is unlikely to be sustained?

Maybe the U.S. economy can sustain an unemployment rate as low as 3.5% without a persistent upward bias to inflation, but we are highly skeptical. 

Could Iran sanctions advance yuan globalization?

In principle, Iran could sell its oil for yuan, running the transactions through China-based financial institutions, futures markets and clearing institutions.

Where have the world’s consumers gone?

Low wage growth may morph from an inexplicable aspect of the current economic setting to a driving force behind a credit crunch and broad contraction of aggregate demand. 

Credit drought is killing Euro Zone expansion

It is both cheap and easy to blame the Q1 slowdown on bad weather. The real culprit is credit.

Removing stimulus versus becoming restrictive

The possible need for policy to get restrictive, not just neutral, is likely to become a regular talking point for Fed officials in the months ahead.

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