Draghi’s little fibs
Practically speaking, no one should expect any ECB tightening at all until some time in 2022.
A new way to read HFE
HFE Notes and Snapshots are now available to subscribers via Bloomberg.
China will not bow to U.S. bullying
Team Trump has set off the mother of all trade wars with China by making a series of gross miscalculations.
Webinar: Hoping For A Short And Shallow Rough Patch
The momentum of most advanced economies slowed in 2018, and that trajectory seems to be extending into early 2019. Join Carl Weinberg and Jim O'Sullivan for an assessment of the outlook.
Webinar: Global Slowdown – Blossoming Or All But Done?
Join Carl Weinberg for a discussion of the causes of the current global economic slowdown, the prospects for recovery and the implications for financial markets.
Jim O’Sullivan: Forecaster of the Year for the 11th time!
"Tom Brady is the Jim O'Sullivan of football," says MarketWatch's Rex Nutting. O'Sullivan won MarketWatch’s Forecaster of the Year award for 2018—his eight consecutive win and eleventh in the last 15 years.
Click here to read.
Webinar: Clouds On The Horizon Or Just A Passing Fog?
Carl Weinberg and Jim O'Sullivan evaluate the darkening outlook for the global economy in 2019.
Click here for details.
Sometimes, you need a better plan
If the BoJ's QQME with YCC were going to do something, it would have happened—or at least, begun—by now.
Upcoming events: January
Coming up: Global webinar on the 2019 outlook and UK roadshow.
Click here for details.
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China’s global exports were up 10.3% year-over-year in July. There is nothing wrong with that. The trade war with the U.S. dents China’s GDP growth but it does not torpedo it.
Could Britain’s yield curve be the next to go negative? The possibility is hard to ignore when 10-year yields halve in three months. Add financial instability to the risks facing a #Brexit-bound economy.
Euro Zone GDP is on the verge of contracting because an undercapitalized banking system can’t lend the excess liquidity created by the ECB. Negative yields pose a new challenge: There are no good loans to write at negative interest rates!
HFE expects a big deviation from consensus in Q2 U.S. productivity and labor costs data tomorrow—also big revisions to Q1. Productivity: 1.7% after 1.7% in Q1—revised down from 2.4%. Unit labor costs: 2.6% after 1.6% in Q1—revised up from -0.8% (four-quarter change basis).
Did you catch Carl Weinberg's insights on the U.S.-China trade war on @bsurveillance with @tomkeene ? https://t.co/mQmZXzCJQH