Webinar: Negative Yields, Trade Wars & More
Join Carl Weinberg and Jim O'Sullivan for an assessment of the U.S. and global economies as 2019 comes to a close.
Mid-Cycle Adjustment?
The case for rate cuts is much weaker now than in previous mid-cycle Fed easings.
Get the most out of HFE on Bloomberg
Some tips from our in-house Bloomberg expert on how to leverage the platform to access HFE research.
Why negative interest rates don’t work
A tree is growing in the forest… when do you cut it down to harvest its wood? When it dies and threatens to fall on your house.
Depopulating economy = falling wages?
In Japan's depopulating economy, productivity is falling—not rising—and so are wages.
U.S. inflation data call for modest—not major—Fed easing
The latest data, and still-accommodative financial conditions, suggest the Fed does not have to cut rates aggressively.
Surveys We Trust
Reliable surveys confirm the Euro Zone economy is not recovering.
Time to lose sleep over world trade slowdown?
We are on the alert for more bad global economic news in the months ahead if the drop in world trade continues.
Webinar: Fed to the rescue — whether needed or not?
Is the Fed being prescient or panicky? Join us for a webinar with Jim O'Sullivan on June 26.
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New calendar year, same story: World exports continue to contract and industrial production is declining in tandem. If you missed our webinar Wednesday on the 2020 outlook, you can request a replay here: https://t.co/tswfIWEoOJ
Look for a reversal tomorrow in Canada’s employment report for December from the anomalous surge in the jobless rate for November. We expect a more trend-like 5.5% and a rebound in employment growth. BoC is likely on hold.
Moderation in U.S. payroll growth last year reflects a maturing labor market—one that is reaching full employment. That said, our 170K forecast for December payrolls is still strong, though not as impressive as November's 266K surge.
Starting in one hour, our first webinar of the decade! The Calendar Changes, The World's Economic Woes Increase? If you miss it live, request a replay... https://t.co/tswfIWEoOJ
Where were you when Desert Storm hit? Market impact Of escalating U.S./Iran hostilities could go either way, if history is any guide.