BoE saves the day; ECB next?
The BoE's bold moves give us some hope that the ECB will lower capital adequacy standards to finally unleash some lending on a credit-starved economy.
Statement on surprise Fed rate cut
HFE does not believe that cutting interest rates will help resolve the supply shock induced by the coronavirus outbreak and the policy responses to it.
Emergency webinar (REPLAY): Covid-19’s global economic impact
Join us Thursday an hour of economic theory, factual evidence and experience-based assessment of how this crisis might evolve.
Coronavirus threat is probably worse than you think
We see the key risk for financial market participants worldwide coming from the vulnerability of China’s financial sector.
Consumer debt delinquency: don’t be alarmed
While credit card delinquency appears to be an issue with younger consumers, it is not a sign of overall household financial stress.
Lower payroll gains from a maturing labor market?
The moderation in U.S. payroll growth in 2019 likely reflects a maturing labor market—one that is reaching full employment. But where does this leave Fed policy?
Webinar Replay: Calendar changes, economic woes increase?
In the new year, the headwinds to global economic growth—trade uncertainties, rising inventories, stopped out monetary policy—are set to become even more daunting.
Technicals versus fundamentals
Technicals can be rationalized as a combination of artistry, technology and pattern recognition.
Is the U.S.-China spat to blame for the world’s trade woes?
We do not believe the global headwinds to prosperity will be eliminated by a rollback of tariffs between the United States and China.
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If the economies of the world undertake $6 trillion in deficit spending for fiscal stimulus this year, what happens next year, if the stimulus is not renewed or increased?https://t.co/n6E9nrfVFL
Mobility data suggest China's economy reached the point of maximum compression at end-February, six weeks before the US and EU economies came to a full stop. Barring a second wave of infections the recovery should continue... so we'll be watching the Beijing outbreak carefully.
Catch @cbweinberg on Bloomberg Radio at 10:45 EDT today with @ptsweeney and @lisaabramowicz1.
The U.S. economy may have moved past the point of maximum compression in May, but the destruction to incomes and household balance sheets from permanent job losses will cause lasting harm to consumers, the backbone of the economy.
Sampling errors related to coronavirus containment policies likely mean the economy has been hit harder that the data suggest.
https://t.co/3pJhFj9Kw4