A repeat of 1987?

The 1987 experience suggests that financial market volatility alone will probably not result in an imminent recession for the U.S. economy.

BoE saves the day; ECB next?

The BoE's bold moves give us some hope that the ECB will lower capital adequacy standards to finally unleash some lending on a credit-starved economy.

Statement on surprise Fed rate cut

HFE does not believe that cutting interest rates will help resolve the supply shock induced by the coronavirus outbreak and the policy responses to it.

Emergency webinar (REPLAY): Covid-19’s global economic impact

Join us Thursday an hour of economic theory, factual evidence and experience-based assessment of how this crisis might evolve.

Coronavirus threat is probably worse than you think

We see the key risk for financial market participants worldwide coming from the vulnerability of China’s financial sector.

Consumer debt delinquency: don’t be alarmed

While credit card delinquency appears to be an issue with younger consumers, it is not a sign of overall household financial stress. 

Lower payroll gains from a maturing labor market?

The moderation in U.S. payroll growth in 2019 likely reflects a maturing labor market—one that is reaching full employment. But where does this leave Fed policy? 

Webinar Replay: Calendar changes, economic woes increase?

In the new year, the headwinds to global economic growth—trade uncertainties, rising inventories, stopped out monetary policy—are set to become even more daunting.

Technicals versus fundamentals

Technicals can be rationalized as a combination of artistry, technology and pattern recognition.

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