Low wage growth may morph from an inexplicable aspect of the current economic setting to a driving force behind a credit crunch and broad contraction of aggregate demand.
It is both cheap and easy to blame the Q1 slowdown on bad weather. The real culprit is credit.
Contrary to popular belief, we do not hate Markit or its PMIs. We just do not trust them to inform us about what the economy is up to.
Foreigners will need access to high-quality yuan assets—liquid and market-priced—if they are to be induced to hold yuan reserves.
Could a sales tax hike in October 2019 help the BoJ finally reach its inflation goal?
Japan’s economy faces a cyclical threat from a massive inventory run-up, on top of its secular decay due to depopulation.
How much do changes in oil prices and exchange rates affect inflation? Not much.
What good are productivity gains when demand is doomed to shrink with the population?
China’s GDP growth picked up to 6.9% in 2017 from 6.7% in 2016. That is surely better, but is it good enough? And what does it mean for investors?
Our bet is that the ECB will maintain accommodative monetary conditions into 2019 at least.