Japan’s economy faces a cyclical threat from a massive inventory run-up, on top of its secular decay due to depopulation.
How much do changes in oil prices and exchange rates affect inflation? Not much.
What good are productivity gains when demand is doomed to shrink with the population?
China’s GDP growth picked up to 6.9% in 2017 from 6.7% in 2016. That is surely better, but is it good enough? And what does it mean for investors?
Our bet is that the ECB will maintain accommodative monetary conditions into 2019 at least.
What smart economists learned in the 1970s will serve the BoE well when it responds to Brexit shocks.
Everything we know about economics suggests that everyone should want something if it does not cost anything. For most of us, however, that inclination is quick to pass, replaced by more pragmatic assessments.
For us, the key distinction between a depression and a recession is that a recession is a cyclical contraction of the economy that is both self-correcting and repeating.
The CPI rises every time there is inflation and falls when there is deflation, but every change in the CPI is not due to inflation or deflation.