Will similarities with Japan’s banking practices of the 1970s and 1980s be the death knell for China’s economy?
The monetary data from Japan and Britain suggest that there is core weakness in the underlying economy.
The problem with the recovery from the global financial crisis is not just lower growth rates, but still-depressed levels of activity.
Yields on 10-year JGBs and Bunds are approaching zero. But the meaning of near-negative interest rates is different in Japan than in Germany.
While the United States fights a futile trade war with China, the rest of the world loses.
The ECB’s plan for ending asset purchases hinges on a questionable CPI forecast.
In principle, Iran could sell its oil for yuan, running the transactions through China-based financial institutions, futures markets and clearing institutions.
Low wage growth may morph from an inexplicable aspect of the current economic setting to a driving force behind a credit crunch and broad contraction of aggregate demand.
It is both cheap and easy to blame the Q1 slowdown on bad weather. The real culprit is credit.
Contrary to popular belief, we do not hate Markit or its PMIs. We just do not trust them to inform us about what the economy is up to.