Is the U.S. economy headed for recession in the next year, and can we trust the LEI to give us an early warning?
The relationship between growth in bank lending and growth in the economy is far from tight.
HFE’s Chief U.S. Economist Jim O’Sullivan answers questions about the outlook for wages, inflation and Fed tightening this year and next.
Our advice is to discount any weakness in the employment unless it is corroborated by a clear-cut uptrend in jobless claims.
The longest U.S. expansion on record is 120 months, running from 1991 to 2001. To surpass that mark, the current expansion, which started in June 2009, would have to last until the summer of 2019.