Latest News & Insights
Two tales of credit woe
The monetary data from Japan and Britain suggest that there is core weakness in the underlying economy.
Too late for a soft landing?
We can see the meaningful risk of a recession starting as soon as 2020.
Globally, industry has yet to recover
The problem with the recovery from the global financial crisis is not just lower growth rates, but still-depressed levels of activity.
Japan and Britain: Two tales of credit woe signal weakness in the underlying economy. https://t.co/CymCqXajhX
Changes in U.S. equity market during this Fed tightening cycle have not been extreme.
JOLTS report continues to signal strength. Record high job openings up again. Quits rate remained at highest since 2001.
Sep housing starts data will probably show a plunge, but data are highly volatile & there was a surge last month. Less volatile Housing Market Index from @NAHBhome is less volatile and a better momentum indicator. Rose 1 pt to 68 in Oct. No sign of major weakening.
This shows how unusual it is for deficit to be near 4% of GDP & rising while UE is < 4% & falling. Deficit already up a bit in '17, signaling structural issues (incl. demographics). But policy changes are adding 2% of GDP by FY19. Moreover, baseline #s assume no recession...