Latest News & Insights
Why negative interest rates don’t work
A tree is growing in the forest… when do you cut it down to harvest its wood? When it dies and threatens to fall on your house.
Depopulating economy = falling wages?
In Japan's depopulating economy, productivity is falling—not rising—and so are wages.
U.S. inflation data call for modest—not major—Fed easing
The latest data, and still-accommodative financial conditions, suggest the Fed does not have to cut rates aggressively.
We forecast flat - or worse - Q2 GDP for the UK. Given the political chaos, with elections likely looming, a boost to the economy from fiscal stimulus seems unlikely, leaving the economy to fall into recession this year... regardless of the Brexit path.
Negative interest rates have not worked for a while. There is no reason to think that making interest rates even more negative will be any more successful in revitalizing the #eurozone economy. #ECB
https://t.co/nuQNny79TZ
Will productivity growth save Japan's depopulating economy? Not a chance.
https://t.co/xf2t23a0md
We see little scope for any possible #ECB policy changes to move the needle on the #eurozone economy.
We agree with #Fed officials that the administration's trade policies are weighing on the outlook, but the level of policy uncertainty is not unprecedented. Trade policy uncertainty is high, but other types of policy uncertainty appear to be low.