Latest News & Insights
The meaning of negative interest rates
Yields on 10-year JGBs and Bunds are approaching zero. But the meaning of near-negative interest rates is different in Japan than in Germany.
Soybean surge makes Trump’s trade war look deceptively good
China will have no problem replacing tariffed imports of U.S. oil and petroleum products, says Carl Weinberg: “U.S. producers will have to scramble to find new customers.”
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What is unsustainable is unlikely to be sustained?
Maybe the U.S. economy can sustain an unemployment rate as low as 3.5% without a persistent upward bias to inflation, but we are highly skeptical.
Be wary of Turkey’s instability spreading to European institutions and individual portfolios, warns HFE’s @cbweinberg in @nytimes https://t.co/49krieJ8P9
12-month change in core CPI will probably hold at 2.3% in tomorrow's report for July, but that is up a little at least from 1.7% a year earlier. Core PPI has been moving up as well, even with tame report today.
Jobless claims remain historically low, consistent with employment growth remaining more than strong enough to keep the unemployment rate trending down.
12-month change in core CPI will probably hold at 2.3% in tomorrow's report for July, but that is up a little at least from 1.7% a year earlier. Core PPI has been moving up as well, even with tame report today.
Jobless claims remain historically low, suggesting no let-up in payrolls gains, which have picked up to 215K per month so far this year from an already strong 182K per month last year.