Latest News & Insights
Japan’s case: Inflation from a sales tax hike?
Could a sales tax hike in October 2019 help the BoJ finally reach its inflation goal?
U.S. participation rate headed up?
Could a rise in the U.S. labor market participation rate help stop the uptrend in inflation? Not likely.
U.S. wage growth picks up even as job growth slows
Despite a weak March result, the U.S. employment data “remain more than strong enough to keep the Fed tightening,” says Jim O'Sullivan.
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Don't blame it all on the weather: The slump in #EuroZone retail sales and output predates #BeastFromTheEast. Has a cyclical slowdown begun?
Could trepidation about a trade war undermine confidence? The plunge in the NY Fed survey's 6-mth outlook index looked ominous, but it was probably mainly noise. The equivalent index in the Philly Fed survey remained fairly high.
The more the U.S. jobless rate falls below the “longer-run normal” level, the greater the likelihood the #fed funds rate will ultimately have to rise above its “longer-run normal”—i.e., neutral—level.
To be blunt, the currency of the largest and dominant exporting nation on the planet should be the world’s transactions currency. #China #yuan
The U.S. unemployment rate has trended down rapidly even though real GDP growth has averaged just 2.2% at an annual rate since the expansion began in 2009. #OkunsLaw