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Sad day for the global economy
While the United States fights a futile trade war with China, the rest of the world loses.
Whose inflation forecast do you believe?
The ECB's plan for ending asset purchases hinges on a questionable CPI forecast.
What is unsustainable is unlikely to be sustained?
Maybe the U.S. economy can sustain an unemployment rate as low as 3.5% without a persistent upward bias to inflation, but we are highly skeptical.
HFE's @cbweinberg will be on @BloombergRadio today with @pimmfox and @lisaabramowicz1 to discuss global trade at 11:30 EDT
More evidence of a healthy labor market: The quits rate is at its highest since 2001. (The rate tracks individuals leaving their jobs voluntarily, not including retirements, so higher readings are a sign of increased optimism.)
Net % of firms in NFIB survey saying they have raised selling prices fell to 14 in Jun from 21 in May, reversing rise in May. Still up from 7, on avg, in 2017, consistent with some acceleration in inflation on a trend basis.
0.6-pt drop in NFIB small biz optimism index in Jun follows +3.0 pts in May. Level remains historically high (and exaggerated) -- high enough based on past averages to be consistent with 6% GDP growth.
Was on @SquawkCNBC this morning discussing the Fed and markets with @BeckyQuick and @TimmerFidelity
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