Latest News & Insights
Lower payroll gains from a maturing labor market?
The moderation in U.S. payroll growth in 2019 likely reflects a maturing labor market—one that is reaching full employment. But where does this leave Fed policy?
Webinar: Calendar changes, economic woes increase?
In the new year, the headwinds to global economic growth—trade uncertainties, rising inventories, stopped out monetary policy—are set to become even more daunting.
Is the U.S.-China spat to blame for the world’s trade woes?
We do not believe the global headwinds to prosperity will be eliminated by a rollback of tariffs between the United States and China.
New calendar year, same story: World exports continue to contract and industrial production is declining in tandem. If you missed our webinar Wednesday on the 2020 outlook, you can request a replay here: https://t.co/tswfIWEoOJ
Look for a reversal tomorrow in Canada’s employment report for December from the anomalous surge in the jobless rate for November. We expect a more trend-like 5.5% and a rebound in employment growth. BoC is likely on hold.
Moderation in U.S. payroll growth last year reflects a maturing labor market—one that is reaching full employment. That said, our 170K forecast for December payrolls is still strong, though not as impressive as November's 266K surge.
Starting in one hour, our first webinar of the decade! The Calendar Changes, The World's Economic Woes Increase? If you miss it live, request a replay... https://t.co/tswfIWEoOJ
Where were you when Desert Storm hit? Market impact Of escalating U.S./Iran hostilities could go either way, if history is any guide.