Latest News & Insights
Emergency webinar: Covid-19’s global economic impact
Join us Thursday an hour of economic theory, factual evidence and experience-based assessment of how this crisis might evolve.
Coronavirus threat is probably worse than you think
We see the key risk for financial market participants worldwide coming from the vulnerability of China’s financial sector.
Consumer debt delinquency: don’t be alarmed
While credit card delinquency appears to be an issue with younger consumers, it is not a sign of overall household financial stress.
The key risk for financial market participants worldwide from the coronavirus is the vulnerability of China’s financial sector. Our mantra is this: Save the banks, save the world.
https://t.co/QdNiUqWl6B
Markets and the Fed are misaligned—
either the market will have to recalibrate, or the Fed will. If it is the Fed that recalibrates, officials will signal any policy shift loud and clear in advance.
New calendar year, same story: World exports continue to contract and industrial production is declining in tandem. If you missed our webinar Wednesday on the 2020 outlook, you can request a replay here: https://t.co/tswfIWEoOJ
Look for a reversal tomorrow in Canada’s employment report for December from the anomalous surge in the jobless rate for November. We expect a more trend-like 5.5% and a rebound in employment growth. BoC is likely on hold.
Moderation in U.S. payroll growth last year reflects a maturing labor market—one that is reaching full employment. That said, our 170K forecast for December payrolls is still strong, though not as impressive as November's 266K surge.