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Japan-style death spiral for China?
Will similarities with Japan’s banking practices of the 1970s and 1980s be the death knell for China's economy?
Two tales of credit woe
The monetary data from Japan and Britain suggest that there is core weakness in the underlying economy.
Too late for a soft landing?
We can see the meaningful risk of a recession starting as soon as 2020.
Most of the 0.6% m/m jump in the PPI in the Oct report was in the especially volatile food, energy & trade services components; the "core-core" series rose 0.2%. Still, the trend has been up. Core-core up 2.8% y/y vs 2.4% a year ago & 1.5% two years ago.
Honored to win the latest @MarketWatch Forecaster of the Month award
@RexNutting @MKTWeconomics
https://t.co/Cvx1oMFmqp
Honored to win the latest @MarketWatch Forecaster of the Month award
@RexNutting @MKTWeconomics
https://t.co/Cvx1oMFmqp
Most of the 0.6% m/m jump in the PPI in the Oct report was in the especially volatile food, energy & trade services components; the "core-core" series rose 0.2%. Still, the trend has been up. Core-core up 2.8% y/y vs 2.4% a year ago & 1.5% two years ago.
Pick-up in AHE to 3.1% y/y in Oct from 2.8% in Sep was helped by "base effects," but those base effects merely offset the opposite base effects in Sep. Trend is gradually but firmly upward, identical to the pattern in the ECI. NAIRU framework is being validated.