China’s economy doesn’t need stimulus to offset the impact of the U.S. trade war. The bigger threat: African swine fever.
Team Trump has set off the mother of all trade wars with China by making a series of gross miscalculations.
The possible need for policy to get restrictive, not just neutral, is likely to become a regular talking point for Fed officials in the months ahead.
The relationship between growth in bank lending and growth in the economy is far from tight.
Our advice is to discount any weakness in the employment unless it is corroborated by a clear-cut uptrend in jobless claims.
The longest U.S. expansion on record is 120 months, running from 1991 to 2001. To surpass that mark, the current expansion, which started in June 2009, would have to last until the summer of 2019.