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The markets are overreacting to trade fears

Jim O’Sullivan discusses the latest round of U.S. tariffs against China.

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hifreqecHigh Frequency Econ@hifreqec·

16 Aug

China’s global exports were up 10.3% year-over-year in July. There is nothing wrong with that. The trade war with the U.S. dents China’s GDP growth but it does not torpedo it.

hifreqecHigh Frequency Econ@hifreqec·

15 Aug

Could Britain’s yield curve be the next to go negative? The possibility is hard to ignore when 10-year yields halve in three months. Add financial instability to the risks facing a #Brexit-bound economy.

hifreqecHigh Frequency Econ@hifreqec·

14 Aug

Euro Zone GDP is on the verge of contracting because an undercapitalized banking system can’t lend the excess liquidity created by the ECB. Negative yields pose a new challenge: There are no good loans to write at negative interest rates!

hifreqecHigh Frequency Econ@hifreqec·

14 Aug

HFE expects a big deviation from consensus in Q2 U.S. productivity and labor costs data tomorrow—also big revisions to Q1. Productivity: 1.7% after 1.7% in Q1—revised down from 2.4%. Unit labor costs: 2.6% after 1.6% in Q1—revised up from -0.8% (four-quarter change basis).

hifreqecHigh Frequency Econ@hifreqec·

13 Aug

Did you catch Carl Weinberg's insights on the U.S.-China trade war on @bsurveillance with @tomkeene ? https://t.co/mQmZXzCJQH

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