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Trade wars are puncturing business confidence

Carl Weinberg discusses the impact of Trump’s trade wars on the global economy on Bloomberg Radio.

Click here to listen.

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osullivanEconJim O'Sullivan@osullivanEcon·

16 Nov

Congrats to @MargaretMolloy et al

osullivanEconJim O'Sullivan@osullivanEcon·

15 Nov

It was an extreme case perhaps, after the government shutdown, but the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for growth in Q1 of 2019 was as low as 0.2% on Mar 12 (equivalent to Dec 12 for Q4) and the 19Q1 GDP growth rate is now reported at 3.1%. (First print was 3.2%.)

osullivanEconJim O'Sullivan@osullivanEcon·

15 Nov

The info from the Atlanta Fed model (now showing Q4 GDP at 0.3%) is limited at this point, as most of the input data that will be used for calculations have yet to be released. Some of the weakness reflects the GM strike, which held down growth in Oct but won't affect Nov/Dec.

osullivanEconJim O'Sullivan@osullivanEcon·

14 Nov

The core PPI was +0.3% m/m in Oct, but there was weakness (worth -0.1 pt) relating to the equities commissions price war. The main Securities Brokerage series was -8.4% m/m, -5.7% y/y. The sub-series for brokerage services for equities & ETFs was -45.5% m/m, -47.3% y/y.

osullivanEconJim O'Sullivan@osullivanEcon·

8 Nov

Congrats!

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