We are skeptical of the signal from the yield curve now given the likely distortion from non-U.S. as well as U.S. QE and negative bond yields in much of the world.
We can see the meaningful risk of a recession starting as soon as 2020.
Is the U.S. economy headed for recession in the next year, and can we trust the LEI to give us an early warning?
The longest U.S. expansion on record is 120 months, running from 1991 to 2001. To surpass that mark, the current expansion, which started in June 2009, would have to last until the summer of 2019.