A long wait for lift-off

If central banks adopt a return to full employment as the criteria for withdrawing stimulus from the economy, then lift-off of interest rates is still years away for most of the world’s major economies.

Outlook

Exaggerated U.S. recession fears?

We are skeptical of the signal from the yield curve now given the likely distortion from non-U.S. as well as U.S. QE and negative bond yields in much of the world.