News

Expert eyes core CPI for signs of inflation

Jim O'Sullivan sends up a warning on inflation ahead of the U.S. CPI data for January.
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Trump policy sees only good in borrowing, debt

Jim O'Sullivan discusses the long-term impact of new fiscal stimulus in the United States. "You have to ask what will ultimately happen when we do go into a recession," he says.
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Washington Post

Trump plan will drop GOP’s traditional goal of balancing budget within 10 years

"The economy appears to be on the verge of overheating and ­arguably needs less, not more, stimulus," Jim O’Sullivan explains.
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O’Sullivan picks up third consecutive Forecaster of the Month win

Jim O'Sullivan just won his seventh consecutive Forecaster of the Year honor. Now MarketWatch has named him Forecaster of the Month for the third time in a row and the twentieth time overall.
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Jobs, economy and market sell-off

Jim O'Sullivan discusses the Dow's plunge, the outlook for U.S. wages gains and prospects for Fed tightening. (Starting at 7:45 minutes.)
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Looking for 4 rate hikes, three in 2019

Jim O'Sullivan weighs in on how many interest rates hike the Fed could issue this year.
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Upcoming Events: February

Jim O'Sullivan will hold a targeted webinar with clients on Wednesday, February 21.
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Mnuchin touts benefits of weak dollar

Carl Weinberg points out that jawboning the dollar lower when it is already falling could make it harder for the United States to sell Treasuries to the rest of the world.
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The rise of the petro-yuan

China is superseding the United States as the dominant player in the global oil market. Carl Weinberg discusses the implications for the yuan, the dollar and the global economy.
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Trump tariffs trigger a wave of protectionist worries

Carl Weinberg discusses his expectations for Trump administration trade initiatives.
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Twitter

I do hope the Survey of the States study serves as a road map to get our national and state leaders to take action on providing our kids with knowledge that will prepare them for the real world. https://t.co/Gnlo9mtl7U @A_Lusardi @WSJ #finlit #econed #edchat #financialliteracy

While not to the same degree, relatively, as the Bloomberg CCI, the Michigan sentiment index is also up in recent weeks, despite what was a correction in equities. Confidence is likely being boosted by the boost to paychecks from the tax cut.

Our Feb. 22 symposium is booked up, but you can still catch the #WomeninEconomics panel via live webcast #EconLowdown https://t.co/tJZk3w3924

Is the boost to paychecks from the tax cut boosting confidence? The Bloomberg consumer comfort index has risen to a new high in the last few weeks, even with the selloff in equities. Will be interesting to see what the Michigan index does tomorrow.

Freaked out by US #retailsales results? @osullivanEcon says a sudden weakening of the trend in spending growth is unlikely without a significant weakening in income, wealth or confidence. He sees no sign of that.