Webinar: Brexit uncertainty strangles Britain’s economy

Carl Weinberg will break down what financial market participants need to now about BTU, BEU and PBS -- Brexit transition uncertainty, Brexit election uncertainty and post-Brexit stagflation.

How do you fix the inflation problem in Argentina?

Tom Keene seeks "Foundational Weinberg Analysis" on Argentina's debt crisis.
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The trade war playbook

Carl Weinberg shares some of his insights on the U.S.-China trade war with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Surveillance.
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Tariffs, jobs and debt, oh my

The already high likelihood of a September Fed easing as risen further, says Jim O'Sullivan.
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U.S. labor market stayed on track in July

Despite deepening drag from trade, the U.S. economy is still growing solidly, concludes Jim O'Sullivan.
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The markets are overreacting to trade fears

Jim O'Sullivan discusses the latest round of U.S. tariffs against China.
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U.S. new home sales picked up in June

Jim O'Sullivan finds that though volatile, the U.S. housing market is still strong.
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Johnson jitters for sterling

It's going to take a "bold stroke" by the ECB to satisfy markets and make a real difference to the Euro Zone economy, says Carl Weinberg.
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Get the most out of HFE on Bloomberg

Some tips from our in-house Bloomberg expert on how to leverage the platform to access HFE research.

Could a second straight quarter of falling earnings signal a possible recession?

Even a sharp drop in U.S. second quarter earnings does not mean a recession will follow, explains Jim O'Sullivan.
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Twitter

Congrats to @MargaretMolloy et al

It was an extreme case perhaps, after the government shutdown, but the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for growth in Q1 of 2019 was as low as 0.2% on Mar 12 (equivalent to Dec 12 for Q4) and the 19Q1 GDP growth rate is now reported at 3.1%. (First print was 3.2%.)

The info from the Atlanta Fed model (now showing Q4 GDP at 0.3%) is limited at this point, as most of the input data that will be used for calculations have yet to be released. Some of the weakness reflects the GM strike, which held down growth in Oct but won't affect Nov/Dec.

The core PPI was +0.3% m/m in Oct, but there was weakness (worth -0.1 pt) relating to the equities commissions price war. The main Securities Brokerage series was -8.4% m/m, -5.7% y/y. The sub-series for brokerage services for equities & ETFs was -45.5% m/m, -47.3% y/y.