Webinar: Hoping For A Short And Shallow Rough Patch

The momentum of most advanced economies slowed in 2018, and that trajectory seems to be extending into early 2019. Join Carl Weinberg and Jim O'Sullivan for an assessment of the outlook.

Webinar: Global Slowdown – Blossoming Or All But Done?

Join Carl Weinberg for a discussion of the causes of the current global economic slowdown, the prospects for recovery and the implications for financial markets.

Jim O'Sullivan - High Frequency Economics

Jim O’Sullivan: Forecaster of the Year for the 11th time!

"Tom Brady is the Jim O'Sullivan of football," says MarketWatch's Rex Nutting.  O'Sullivan won MarketWatch’s Forecaster of the Year award for 2018—his eight consecutive win and eleventh in the last 15 years.  
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Webinar: Clouds On The Horizon Or Just A Passing Fog?

Carl Weinberg and Jim O'Sullivan evaluate the darkening outlook for the global economy in 2019.
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Carl Weinberg, Jim O'Sullivan

Upcoming events: January

Coming up: Global webinar on the 2019 outlook and UK roadshow.
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U.S. labor market tightening; inflation pressures muted

Still-low jobless claims should lessen fears about the U.S. labor market weakening significantly.
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Overall economy ‘looks solid’

Jim O'Sullivan says the U.S. economy looks solid, despite some signs of moderation.
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How to spot job layoffs coming, even in a good economy

Even in a strong U.S. labor market, there are sectors and companies having cyclical troubles, explains Jim O'Sullivan.
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The best way to predict the future of rates

Jim O'Sullivan expects the U.S. economy will continue to create enough jobs to keep the Fed tightening.
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Rise in layoffs points to slowing economic growth

In the U.S., Jim O'Sullivan sees "some loss of momentum in what has been a strong labor market."
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Twitter

Benign CPI and PPI figures defuse some tension about a rate hike…HFE does not think the #BoE should hike interest rates while #Brexit is pending - but it might.

Click here for a free trial to HFE’s Daily Notes on the Global Economy https://t.co/FKcdoLOYHg

China’s “slowdown” has little effect on Australia’s economy, despite huge export dependence

Click here for a free trial to HFE’s Daily Notes on the Global Economy https://t.co/FKcdoLOYHg

#ECB Bank Lending Survey documents another minuscule easing of credit conditions: Terms for new borrowing remain extremely tight

Click here for a free trial to HFE’s Daily Notes on the Global Economy https://t.co/FKcdoLOYHg

Payrolls gains have slowed to a still-strong 180K ytd from 223K last year. Slowing has been led by manufacturing & temps, and much of the slowing in temps has probably also been in manufacturing. Mfg is affected much more than non-mfg by weakening in exports.