News

2-year Treasury yield sees largest monthly fall since Brexit

“Markets are pricing in too little tightening, and yields will eventually go higher," says Jim O'Sullivan.
Click here to read.

Chance of recession in the next two years?

"Fiscal stimulus is a terrible idea" at this stage in the U.S. economic cycle, says Jim O'Sullivan.
Click here to read.

‘Secular stagnation’ thesis is catching on

Carl Weinberg is willing to call the past decade of sluggish growth a "depression."
Click here to read.

Webinar: Q1 slowdown—blip or new trend?

HFE clients are invited to join us Wednesday, May 16, for this in-depth assessment of the global economy and markets, followed by a question and answer session.

New York Times

With Eurozone economy wavering, E.C.B. leaves policy unchanged

“It would take a bold central bank to tighten monetary conditions when the economy is contracting, or even just slowing,” says Carl Weinberg.
Click here to read.

Bloomberg Surveillance

Carl Weinberg discusses flash points for the global economy with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua.
Click here to listen.

Washington Post

Fed report shows business execs worry about Trump’s trade moves

Jim O’Sullivan says he has “little doubt that the equity market would be stronger if it weren’t for worries about a trade war, given earnings strength.”
Click here to read.

Deficits don’t matter—until they do

Jim O'Sullivan sends up a warning on the CBO'S U.S. deficit projections: "None of the projections allows for a recession at any point, which is highly implausible."
Click here to read.

National Economists Club

Jim O'Sullivan will address the National Economists Club in Washington, DC, on Thursday, April 12. "Fiscal Easing + Fed Tightening + 'Art of the Deal' Trade Policy = ?"

Small-business sentiment drifts down

In the U.S., the growth signal from surveys has been exaggerated by increased partisanship in how respondents answer questions. But the surveys are still sending the right directional signal, explains Jim O'Sullivan.
Click here to read.

Twitter

We continue to view trade tensions as the main source of downside risk for the U.S. economy in the months ahead.

#ECB decision couched in conditionality reflects uncertainty in outlook, but further decay in #Eurozone economy may change ultimate outcome. Sovereign bond prices/yields should be unaffected as #ECB is now buying other paper. Dip in the Euro reflects absence of rate hike. #draghi

Median Fed official estimate for UE in Q4 of this year was cut to 3.6% from 3.8%. The UE rate has continued to fall more rapidly than expected, consistent with officials continuing to underestimate how accommodative policy has been -- and still is?

Median Fed official estimate for UE in Q4 of this year was cut to 3.6% from 3.8%. The UE rate has continued to fall more rapidly than expected, consistent with officials continuing to underestimate how accommodative policy has been -- and still is?

The fed funds rate is continuing to rise under Chairman Powell, but the uptrend in the length of the statement is being reversed: The number of words dropped to 285 from 385 in May.