Emergency webinar: Covid-19’s global economic impact

Join us Thursday an hour of economic theory, factual evidence and experience-based assessment of how this crisis might evolve.

Webinar Replay: Calendar changes, economic woes increase?

In the new year, the headwinds to global economic growth—trade uncertainties, rising inventories, stopped out monetary policy—are set to become even more daunting.

Rubeela Farooqi joins HFE as Chief U.S. Economist

High Frequency Economics is pleased to announced Rubeela Farooqi as our new Chief U.S. Economist. John Silvia is also joining the firm as advisor and research contributor.
Click here for details.

The 7 best bond funds for retirement savers in 2020

According to Carl Weinberg, a bond with a negative yield is worth less than "a bag of dirt in your basement."
Click here to read.

China says tariffs will come down if trade deal reached with U.S.

Carl Weinberg warns not to celebrate a U.S.-China trade deal until one is actually signed and sealed.
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Things aren’t looking great for China’s economy

“It seems to us that in a world where average GDP growth is barely over 3%, China’s growth rate of 6% is not too shabby,” says Carl Weinberg.
Click here to read.

How do you fix the inflation problem in Argentina?

Tom Keene seeks "Foundational Weinberg Analysis" on Argentina's debt crisis.
Click here to view clip.

The trade war playbook

Carl Weinberg shares some of his insights on the U.S.-China trade war with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Surveillance.
Click here to view clip.

Tariffs, jobs and debt, oh my

The already high likelihood of a September Fed easing as risen further, says Jim O'Sullivan.
Click here to read.

U.S. labor market stayed on track in July

Despite deepening drag from trade, the U.S. economy is still growing solidly, concludes Jim O'Sullivan.
Click here to read.

Twitter

The key risk for financial market participants worldwide from the coronavirus is the vulnerability of China’s financial sector. Our mantra is this: Save the banks, save the world.
https://t.co/QdNiUqWl6B

Markets and the Fed are misaligned—
either the market will have to recalibrate, or the Fed will. If it is the Fed that recalibrates, officials will signal any policy shift loud and clear in advance.

New calendar year, same story: World exports continue to contract and industrial production is declining in tandem. If you missed our webinar Wednesday on the 2020 outlook, you can request a replay here: https://t.co/tswfIWEoOJ

Look for a reversal tomorrow in Canada’s employment report for December from the anomalous surge in the jobless rate for November. We expect a more trend-like 5.5% and a rebound in employment growth. BoC is likely on hold.

Moderation in U.S. payroll growth last year reflects a maturing labor market—one that is reaching full employment. That said, our 170K forecast for December payrolls is still strong, though not as impressive as November's 266K surge.