News

China will skate through tariff war without much pain

On Bloomberg Markets AM, Carl Weinberg explains how China could still hurt the U.S. once it runs out of imports to tax.
Click here to listen.

New York Times

Soybean surge makes Trump’s trade war look deceptively good

China will have no problem replacing tariffed imports of U.S. oil and petroleum products, says Carl Weinberg:  “U.S. producers will have to scramble to find new customers.”
Click here to read.

Markets are in a mid-cycle ‘twilight zone’

Jim O'Sullivan discusses his expectations for Fed tightening on Squawk Box.
Click here to watch.

U.S. trade gap narrowed in May

Jim O'Sullivan observes that a smaller trade gap may encourage U.S. trade warmongering.  “We almost need a little bit of a scare to force negotiations,” he says.
Click here to read.

Why U.S. investors cannot afford to ignore China

Carl Weinberg squared off against Gordon Chang at the New York Alternative Investment Roundtable event, "Why U.S. Investors Cannot Afford to Ignore China."

2-year Treasury yield sees largest monthly fall since Brexit

“Markets are pricing in too little tightening, and yields will eventually go higher," says Jim O'Sullivan.
Click here to read.

U.S. consumer spending strengthened further in April

Jim O'Sullivan says the jump in consumer spending in April supports the outlook for a pickup U.S. economic growth in second quarter after a slow Q1.
Click here to read.

Chance of recession in the next two years?

"Fiscal stimulus is a terrible idea" at this stage in the U.S. economic cycle, says Jim O'Sullivan.
Click here to read.

‘Secular stagnation’ thesis is catching on

Carl Weinberg is willing to call the past decade of sluggish growth a "depression."
Click here to read.

Webinar: Q1 slowdown—blip or new trend?

HFE clients are invited to join us Wednesday, May 16, for this in-depth assessment of the global economy and markets, followed by a question and answer session.

Twitter

Be wary of Turkey’s instability spreading to European institutions and individual portfolios, warns HFE’s @cbweinberg in @nytimes https://t.co/49krieJ8P9

12-month change in core CPI will probably hold at 2.3% in tomorrow's report for July, but that is up a little at least from 1.7% a year earlier. Core PPI has been moving up as well, even with tame report today.

Jobless claims remain historically low, consistent with employment growth remaining more than strong enough to keep the unemployment rate trending down.

12-month change in core CPI will probably hold at 2.3% in tomorrow's report for July, but that is up a little at least from 1.7% a year earlier. Core PPI has been moving up as well, even with tame report today.

Jobless claims remain historically low, suggesting no let-up in payrolls gains, which have picked up to 215K per month so far this year from an already strong 182K per month last year.