Why US assets are still a ‘safe haven’

“We predict that this must affect longer-term risk assessments of investors around the world,” explains Carl Weinberg, regarding the events in Washington DC on January 6.
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The Capitol riot crystalizes 4 years of American decline

"The fallout from yesterday’s events caps a four-year decline in the cachet of being American," says Carl Weinberg, regarding the potential impact on investor sentiment towards the United States of the insurrection in Washington DC.
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Bond yields’ jump could be a big problem for stocks

Rubeela Farooqi discusses the impact of more fiscal stimulus on the outlook for the US economy in 2021.
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Dem Senate will revive infrastructure: HFE’s Weinberg

Carl Weinberg discusses US-China relations, and how the Democratic Senate win changes HFE's outlook for the economy.
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Insurrection day was easier for markets than us

In this editorial, John Authers quotes HFE's comments on the January 6 events in Washington DC at length.
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New York Times

Unemployment claims remain high as millions still struggle to find work

Brace for a massive deceleration in US payrolls in December, warns Rubeela Farooqi.
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New-home construction charges on

Rubeela Farooqi assesses the latest housing market data.
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Swiss central bank chief rejects ‘currency manipulator’ label from the U.S.

“I certainly don’t understand how declaring the Swiss to be a currency manipulator advances the interests of the United States, or makes anything better for anyone doing business, and of course there are no consequences to being labeled a currency manipulator either, so this is what the current Treasury secretary is doing, and there will be a new Treasury secretary in a few months,” says Carl Weinberg.
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US needs post-Covid ‘reconstruction’: HFE’s Weinberg

On Bloomberg Radio, Carl Weinberg discusses what it will take to pull the economy out of its pandemic slump.
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US trade gap widens in October as imports accelerate

Discussing the pandemic's impact on US trade, Rubeela Farooqi warns that "widening restrictions on activity, at home and abroad, have the potential to disrupt supply chains and weigh on demand going forward."
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Will a post-pandemic rebound, super-charged by massive monetary and fiscal stimulus, inevitably lead to runaway inflation? @cbweinberg and @RubeelaFarooqi will have the answers in our webinar today! https://t.co/rh0eLJggSX

Fed Chair Powell is likely to add his support to calls for more fiscal aid, rather than less, but he is unlikely to comment on the size. To avoid a further scarring, the US economy needs a bridge between March and whenever the virus can be contained.

With the Euro Zone economy heading into a double dip, the ECB is out of options: https://t.co/ythvVjk8Uw

Moving Davos online this year cuts the strings that bind the discussions to European agendas, and the special WEF meeting in May moves the event into Asia time zones and spheres influence. Until Team Biden can reengage in the global policy convo, China has the stage to itself.

The US participation rate for prime-age women has been falling faster than men, and women accounted for the entire drop in payrolls in Dec: A net job loss for women of 156K was partially offset by a 16K gain for men. We're not sure what this means for investors, but we are wary.