Bloomberg Surveillance

Carl Weinberg discusses flash points for the global economy with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua.
Click here to listen.

Washington Post

Fed report shows business execs worry about Trump’s trade moves

Jim O’Sullivan says he has “little doubt that the equity market would be stronger if it weren’t for worries about a trade war, given earnings strength.”
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Deficits don’t matter—until they do

Jim O'Sullivan sends up a warning on the CBO'S U.S. deficit projections: "None of the projections allows for a recession at any point, which is highly implausible."
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National Economists Club

Jim O'Sullivan will address the National Economists Club in Washington, DC, on Thursday, April 12. "Fiscal Easing + Fed Tightening + 'Art of the Deal' Trade Policy = ?"

Small-business sentiment drifts down

In the U.S., the growth signal from surveys has been exaggerated by increased partisanship in how respondents answer questions. But the surveys are still sending the right directional signal, explains Jim O'Sullivan.
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U.S. trade deficit is going to widen

Speaking with Tom Keene, Jim O'Sullivan explains that a widening U.S. fiscal deficit ensures that the U.S. trade deficit will widen as well.
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Why stock-market investors shouldn’t expect China’s Xi to back down in trade battle

“We believe China believes that it has little to fear from U.S. tariffs, and that it sees itself as having more to gain from holding on to the upper ground in the face of U.S. threats,” says Carl Weinberg.
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Jobs report countdown

Jim O'Sullivan discuss the U.S. employment report for March on SquawkBox.
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U.S. wage growth picks up even as job growth slows

Despite a weak March result, the U.S. employment data “remain more than strong enough to keep the Fed tightening,” says Jim O'Sullivan.
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Growth slowed across most of U.S. economy in March

Do not expect the ISM manufacturing index to move in lockstep with broader economic growth, explains Jim O'Sullivan.  But despite a drop in March, it continues “ to suggest good momentum” in the U.S. economy.
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#Eurozone jobless rate, at 8.5%, is still more than a percentage point above its 2008 nadir. But even getting back to 7.3% need not trigger inflation alarms—core inflation was on target and stable in 2008. #ECB

It would take a gutsy #MPC to hike interest rates when the economy is contracting... #UK #BoE #GDP

Sure, the number of jobseekers fell in France last quarter, but at this rate it will take 18 years to reduce joblessness to 2008 levels!

At a glance: slowing trends in the monthly indicators. #Japan #eurozone #UK #US

Foreigners will need access to high-quality #yuan assets—liquid and market-priced—if they are to be induced to hold yuan reserves. #petroyuan