Why US assets are still a ‘safe haven’

“We predict that this must affect longer-term risk assessments of investors around the world,” explains Carl Weinberg, regarding the events in Washington DC on January 6.
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The Capitol riot crystalizes 4 years of American decline

"The fallout from yesterday’s events caps a four-year decline in the cachet of being American," says Carl Weinberg, regarding the potential impact on investor sentiment towards the United States of the insurrection in Washington DC.
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Bond yields’ jump could be a big problem for stocks

Rubeela Farooqi discusses the impact of more fiscal stimulus on the outlook for the US economy in 2021.
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Dem Senate will revive infrastructure: HFE’s Weinberg

Carl Weinberg discusses US-China relations, and how the Democratic Senate win changes HFE's outlook for the economy.
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Insurrection day was easier for markets than us

In this editorial, John Authers quotes HFE's comments on the January 6 events in Washington DC at length.
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New York Times

Unemployment claims remain high as millions still struggle to find work

Brace for a massive deceleration in US payrolls in December, warns Rubeela Farooqi.
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New-home construction charges on

Rubeela Farooqi assesses the latest housing market data.
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Swiss central bank chief rejects ‘currency manipulator’ label from the U.S.

“I certainly don’t understand how declaring the Swiss to be a currency manipulator advances the interests of the United States, or makes anything better for anyone doing business, and of course there are no consequences to being labeled a currency manipulator either, so this is what the current Treasury secretary is doing, and there will be a new Treasury secretary in a few months,” says Carl Weinberg.
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US needs post-Covid ‘reconstruction’: HFE’s Weinberg

On Bloomberg Radio, Carl Weinberg discusses what it will take to pull the economy out of its pandemic slump.
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US trade gap widens in October as imports accelerate

Discussing the pandemic's impact on US trade, Rubeela Farooqi warns that "widening restrictions on activity, at home and abroad, have the potential to disrupt supply chains and weigh on demand going forward."
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The US participation rate for prime-age women has been falling faster than men, and women accounted for the entire drop in payrolls in Dec: A net job loss for women of 156K was partially offset by a 16K gain for men. We're not sure what this means for investors, but we are wary.

Our team is about to start a client webinar focusing on the changes to outlook for 2021 in light of the high-impact developments of the last few weeks. Can't join? You can request an invite to the replay...

The last two weeks have seen a number of impactful developments, from politics to the pandemic. They have impacted our outlook for 2021 as well.

We are skeptical that expectations of a post-pandemic surge of inflation will be realized, but markets may mistake an oil price basis effect for inflation. https://t.co/dKAB19pC95

Thanks to all for support for our op ed on the insurrection yesterday. I'll be talking economics, not politics, on #cnbc Squawk Box Europe tomorrow (Friday) at 08:30 London tomorrow.