Webinar: Brexit at the wire

Prepare for the worst, don’t just hope for the best.
Click here for info on our October 18 webinar.

How the European Central Bank cut bond buys without sparking a taper tantrum

"Neither tapering nor terminating is tightening," explains Carl Weinberg.
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U.S. trade deficit widened in August

Despite weaker export growth in August, Jim O'Sullivan says real U.S. GDP growth still looks on track for at least a 3.0% annual rate in the third quarter.
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Investors will be more optimistic with a reasonably healthy jobs report

Jim O’Sullivan discusses the state of the U.S. economy ahead of the September jobs report.
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U.S. services-Sector activity hits record high

Jim O'Sullivan says the U.S. non-manufacturing ISM  has been overstating the trend in growth recently, “but the data signal strong momentum nonetheless.”
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U.S. economy grew at robust 4.2% rate in Q2

Growth look set to remain strong in the second half of the year but then fade in 2019, says Jim O'Sullivan.
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Trade war with China to limit Fed’s interest-rate hike plans?

“I don’t think stop the Fed from continuing to tighten,” says Jim O'Sullivan.
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HFE Global Webinar

Join us as Carl Weinberg and Jim O'Sullivan discuss the road ahead for the U.S. and global economies.

Consumer confidence hits 18-year high

Jim O'Sullivan says the continued down-trend in the U.S. jobless rate is surely behind the high in consumer confidence.
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New York Times

Plunge in Lira fuels fears of financial contagion

“Turkey’s woes can ripple out to hammer European Union institutions,” destabilizing Europe's already fragile banking sector, explains Carl Weinberg.
Click here to read.


Changes in U.S. equity market during this Fed tightening cycle have not been extreme.

JOLTS report continues to signal strength. Record high job openings up again. Quits rate remained at highest since 2001.

Sep housing starts data will probably show a plunge, but data are highly volatile & there was a surge last month. Less volatile Housing Market Index from @NAHBhome is less volatile and a better momentum indicator. Rose 1 pt to 68 in Oct. No sign of major weakening.

This shows how unusual it is for deficit to be near 4% of GDP & rising while UE is < 4% & falling. Deficit already up a bit in '17, signaling structural issues (incl. demographics). But policy changes are adding 2% of GDP by FY19. Moreover, baseline #s assume no recession...

Is it too late for the #Fed to secure a soft landing for the U.S. economy?