A rate cut won’t affect the economy much…

The Fed has laid the groundwork for a 25 basis point rate cut in July, says Jim O'Sullivan on Squawk Box.
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Economist Weinberg on Trump’s concession, Europe, China risks

Carl Weinberg shares his outlook for the global economy, and his expectations for the U.S.-China trade dispute, on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene.
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Chicago PMI falls into contraction in June

Jim O'Sullivan does not expect the U.S. ISM manufacturing index to slide into recession territory.
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U.S. government bond yields rebound on trade hopes

While the U.S. manufacturing sector has slowed significantly, the trends are not as weak as the headline data for May suggest, observes Jim O'Sullivan.
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Poltico

Trump’s economic fall guy

On President Trump's critique of the Fed, Jim O'Sullivan says, "I would like to see his monetary policy model. He must have a very low — negative — estimate for r-star (the neutral funds rate)."
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Is the U.S. already in a recession?

Jim O'Sullivan sees the slowdown in U.S. payrolls growth in May as normal volatility, not a sign of impending recession.
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Webinar: Fed to the rescue — whether needed or not?

Is the Fed being prescient or panicky? Join us for a webinar with Jim O'Sullivan on June 26.

Trump pokes Fed on rates as policy meet opens

Jim O'Sullivan warns that the Fed might not be willing to dole out as much easing as the markets expect.
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As China exports slow, government might face growing labor unrest

Carl Weinberg says trade troubles with the U.S. are not the most pressing trouble for China's economy right now.
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Jim O’Sullivan on tariff headwinds and second-half slowing

With trade tensions escalating and a global slowdown underway, many are left wondering if recession is near...
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Twitter

We agree with #Fed officials that the administration's trade policies are weighing on the outlook, but the level of policy uncertainty is not unprecedented. Trade policy uncertainty is high, but other types of policy uncertainty appear to be low.

Beware volatility in US jobless claims data from auto plant shutdowns. Through the volatility, though, the trend continues to signal strength. GDP may have slowed in Q2, but the data are not looking very recession-like.

Watch Australia's employment report tomorrow: The RBA will cut rates again if the jobless rate does not fall in response to easier monetary conditions... but it will probably take a wait-and-see approach until November.

Austrian economics quiz:
Q: If interest rates are negative, when do you cut down a tree to harvest the wood?
A: When it falls on your house.
#ECB

Mixed signals for Canada's economy: Employment is strong, but there could be red flags in survey of mfg tomorrow: High inventories demand a correction, and that means a period of reduced production and a loss of jobs in manufacturing.