To hike or to ease? That is the BoC’s question

Is the Bank of Canada more likely to hike interest rates, as slack evaporates, or to cut interest rates, following the Fed?

Exaggerated U.S. recession fears?

We are skeptical of the signal from the yield curve now given the likely distortion from non-U.S. as well as U.S. QE and negative bond yields in much of the world.

Webinar: Negative Yields, Trade Wars & More

Join Carl Weinberg and Jim O'Sullivan for an assessment of the U.S. and global economies as 2019 comes to a close.

Mid-Cycle Adjustment?

The case for rate cuts is much weaker now than in previous mid-cycle Fed easings.

Get the most out of HFE on Bloomberg

Some tips from our in-house Bloomberg expert on how to leverage the platform to access HFE research.

Why negative interest rates don’t work

A tree is growing in the forest… when do you cut it down to harvest its wood? When it dies and threatens to fall on your house.

Japan

Depopulating economy = falling wages?

In Japan's depopulating economy, productivity is falling—not rising—and so are wages.

U.S. inflation data call for modest—not major—Fed easing

The latest data, and still-accommodative financial conditions, suggest the Fed does not have to cut rates aggressively.

Surveys We Trust

Reliable surveys confirm the Euro Zone economy is not recovering.

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