HFE Insights

Could Iran sanctions advance yuan globalization?

In principle, Iran could sell its oil for yuan, running the transactions through China-based financial institutions, futures markets and clearing institutions.

Where have the world’s consumers gone?

Low wage growth may morph from an inexplicable aspect of the current economic setting to a driving force behind a credit crunch and broad contraction of aggregate demand. 

Credit drought is killing Euro Zone expansion

It is both cheap and easy to blame the Q1 slowdown on bad weather. The real culprit is credit.

Removing stimulus versus becoming restrictive

The possible need for policy to get restrictive, not just neutral, is likely to become a regular talking point for Fed officials in the months ahead.

Webinar: Q1 slowdown—blip or new trend?

HFE clients are invited to join us Wednesday, May 16, for this in-depth assessment of the global economy and markets, followed by a question and answer session.

Unvalidated PMIs

Contrary to popular belief, we do not hate Markit or its PMIs. We just do not trust them to inform us about what the economy is up to.

U.S. GDP growth—how fast is sustainable?

U.S. GDP growth may seem weak relative to previous expansions, but it is unsustainably strong relative to potential.

China’s financial reforms are linked to petro yuan

Foreigners will need access to high-quality yuan assets—liquid and market-priced—if they are to be induced to hold yuan reserves.

Japan’s case: Inflation from a sales tax hike?

Could a sales tax hike in October 2019 help the BoJ finally reach its inflation goal?

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