HFE Insights

China’s financial reforms are linked to petro yuan

Foreigners will need access to high-quality yuan assets—liquid and market-priced—if they are to be induced to hold yuan reserves.

Japan’s case: Inflation from a sales tax hike?

Could a sales tax hike in October 2019 help the BoJ finally reach its inflation goal?

U.S. participation rate headed up?

Could a rise in the U.S. labor market participation rate help stop the uptrend in inflation? Not likely.

Assessing Fed policy: What is r*?

There is no way to know the precise level, and it can change over time.

Secular vs cyclical: Japan’s economy is in trouble

Japan's economy faces a cyclical threat from a massive inventory run-up, on top of its secular decay due to depopulation.

High Frequency Economics - Brexit

Webinar: Brexit Transition—The Bitter Truth

With under a year to go and no part of any agreement nailed down, things are not going well.  It is time to speak to the consequences of that.

U.S. momentum good enough for trade battles?

We have been—and still are—quite positive on the U.S. economy, but could trade warmongering derail the outlook?

Gauging the impact of oil prices, currencies on inflation

How much do changes in oil prices and exchange rates affect inflation? Not much.

Outlook

Can we trust the LEI to signal the next U.S. recession?

Is the U.S. economy headed for recession in the next year, and can we trust the LEI to give us an early warning?

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