Euro Zone banks are not to responding to the ECB’s generous boost to liquidity by increasing their lending.
The problem with the recovery from the global financial crisis is not just lower growth rates, but still-depressed levels of activity.
The ECB’s plan for ending asset purchases hinges on a questionable CPI forecast.
It is both cheap and easy to blame the Q1 slowdown on bad weather. The real culprit is credit.
Contrary to popular belief, we do not hate Markit or its PMIs. We just do not trust them to inform us about what the economy is up to.
How much do changes in oil prices and exchange rates affect inflation? Not much.
Our bet is that the ECB will maintain accommodative monetary conditions into 2019 at least.
Everything we know about economics suggests that everyone should want something if it does not cost anything. For most of us, however, that inclination is quick to pass, replaced by more pragmatic assessments.
For us, the key distinction between a depression and a recession is that a recession is a cyclical contraction of the economy that is both self-correcting and repeating.