Reliable surveys confirm the Euro Zone economy is not recovering.
Tag Archives: Euro Zone
When the jobless rate is meaningless…
The record low German unemployment rate does not reflect a truly tight supply of labor.
Draghi’s little fibs
Practically speaking, no one should expect any ECB tightening at all until some time in 2022.
Euro Zone banks are not to responding to the ECB’s generous boost to liquidity by increasing their lending.
Globally, industry has yet to recover
The problem with the recovery from the global financial crisis is not just lower growth rates, but still-depressed levels of activity.
Whose inflation forecast do you believe?
The ECB’s plan for ending asset purchases hinges on a questionable CPI forecast.
Credit drought is killing Euro Zone expansion
It is both cheap and easy to blame the Q1 slowdown on bad weather. The real culprit is credit.
Contrary to popular belief, we do not hate Markit or its PMIs. We just do not trust them to inform us about what the economy is up to.
Gauging the impact of oil prices, currencies on inflation
How much do changes in oil prices and exchange rates affect inflation? Not much.
Growth is not a crime
Our bet is that the ECB will maintain accommodative monetary conditions into 2019 at least.