The recovery in the US stock market has coincided with the deepest economic contraction since the Great Depression. Will stocks continue on their current path or adjust to the economic reality?
Tag Archives: U.S. economy
U.S. employment report: The good, the bad and the ugly
While the May bounce in payrolls was welcome, it barely made a dent in the road to job recovery.
A repeat of 1987?
The 1987 experience suggests that financial market volatility alone will probably not result in an imminent recession for the U.S. economy.
Consumer debt delinquency: don’t be alarmed
While credit card delinquency appears to be an issue with younger consumers, it is not a sign of overall household financial stress.
Lower payroll gains from a maturing labor market?
The moderation in U.S. payroll growth in 2019 likely reflects a maturing labor market—one that is reaching full employment. But where does this leave Fed policy?
Exaggerated U.S. recession fears?
We are skeptical of the signal from the yield curve now given the likely distortion from non-U.S. as well as U.S. QE and negative bond yields in much of the world.
Mid-Cycle Adjustment?
The case for rate cuts is much weaker now than in previous mid-cycle Fed easings.
U.S. inflation data call for modest—not major—Fed easing
The latest data, and still-accommodative financial conditions, suggest the Fed does not have to cut rates aggressively.
Globally, industry has yet to recover
The problem with the recovery from the global financial crisis is not just lower growth rates, but still-depressed levels of activity.
Sad day for the global economy
While the United States fights a futile trade war with China, the rest of the world loses.