The problem with the recovery from the global financial crisis is not just lower growth rates, but still-depressed levels of activity.
We continue to forecast no let-up from the Fed’s quarter-point-per-quarter tightening pace any time soon.
Carl Weinberg’s presentation on China’s economic outlook.
Yields on 10-year JGBs and Bunds are approaching zero. But the meaning of near-negative interest rates is different in Japan than in Germany.
While the United States fights a futile trade war with China, the rest of the world loses.
The ECB’s plan for ending asset purchases hinges on a questionable CPI forecast.
Maybe the U.S. economy can sustain an unemployment rate as low as 3.5% without a persistent upward bias to inflation, but we are highly skeptical.
In principle, Iran could sell its oil for yuan, running the transactions through China-based financial institutions, futures markets and clearing institutions.
Low wage growth may morph from an inexplicable aspect of the current economic setting to a driving force behind a credit crunch and broad contraction of aggregate demand.
It is both cheap and easy to blame the Q1 slowdown on bad weather. The real culprit is credit.