If “lockdown to protect public health” caused 20%-plus contractions of economic activity in China, will they have the same impact on the world’s largest advanced industrial economies?
Category Archives: Insights
The unraveling of global financial markets
Market conditions today may be a signal that financial crisis and economic crisis have become entangled with epidemiological crisis.
ECB botches a policy opportunity
This is shaping up to be a really bad day for financial markets, made worse by another botching of a policy opportunity by the ECB.
A repeat of 1987?
The 1987 experience suggests that financial market volatility alone will probably not result in an imminent recession for the U.S. economy.
BoE saves the day; ECB next?
The BoE’s bold moves give us some hope that the ECB will lower capital adequacy standards to finally unleash some lending on a credit-starved economy.
Statement on surprise Fed rate cut
HFE does not believe that cutting interest rates will help resolve the supply shock induced by the coronavirus outbreak and the policy responses to it.
Emergency webinar (REPLAY): Covid-19’s global economic impact
Join us Thursday an hour of economic theory, factual evidence and experience-based assessment of how this crisis might evolve.
Coronavirus threat is probably worse than you think
We see the key risk for financial market participants worldwide coming from the vulnerability of China’s financial sector.
Consumer debt delinquency: don’t be alarmed
While credit card delinquency appears to be an issue with younger consumers, it is not a sign of overall household financial stress.
Lower payroll gains from a maturing labor market?
The moderation in U.S. payroll growth in 2019 likely reflects a maturing labor market—one that is reaching full employment. But where does this leave Fed policy?