The moderation in U.S. payroll growth in 2019 likely reflects a maturing labor market—one that is reaching full employment. But where does this leave Fed policy?
Category Archives: Insights
Webinar: Calendar changes, economic woes increase?
In the new year, the headwinds to global economic growth—trade uncertainties, rising inventories, stopped out monetary policy—are set to become even more daunting.
Technicals versus fundamentals
Technicals can be rationalized as a combination of artistry, technology and pattern recognition.
Is the U.S.-China spat to blame for the world’s trade woes?
We do not believe the global headwinds to prosperity will be eliminated by a rollback of tariffs between the United States and China.
Webinar: Brexit uncertainty strangles Britain’s economy
Carl Weinberg will break down what financial market participants need to now about BTU, BEU and PBS — Brexit transition uncertainty, Brexit election uncertainty and post-Brexit stagflation.
How much cash is under your mattress?
Is it possible that low interest rates are driving deposits out of banks and into cash? If so, what does it mean for the banking system?
Does China’s economy need stimulus?
China’s economy doesn’t need stimulus to offset the impact of the U.S. trade war. The bigger threat: African swine fever.
To hike or to ease? That is the BoC’s question
Is the Bank of Canada more likely to hike interest rates, as slack evaporates, or to cut interest rates, following the Fed?
Exaggerated U.S. recession fears?
We are skeptical of the signal from the yield curve now given the likely distortion from non-U.S. as well as U.S. QE and negative bond yields in much of the world.
Webinar: Negative Yields, Trade Wars & More
Join Carl Weinberg and Jim O’Sullivan for an assessment of the U.S. and global economies as 2019 comes to a close.