The ECB’s plan for ending asset purchases hinges on a questionable CPI forecast.
Maybe the U.S. economy can sustain an unemployment rate as low as 3.5% without a persistent upward bias to inflation, but we are highly skeptical.
In principle, Iran could sell its oil for yuan, running the transactions through China-based financial institutions, futures markets and clearing institutions.
Low wage growth may morph from an inexplicable aspect of the current economic setting to a driving force behind a credit crunch and broad contraction of aggregate demand.
It is both cheap and easy to blame the Q1 slowdown on bad weather. The real culprit is credit.
The possible need for policy to get restrictive, not just neutral, is likely to become a regular talking point for Fed officials in the months ahead.
HFE clients are invited to join us Wednesday, May 16, for this in-depth assessment of the global economy and markets, followed by a question and answer session.
Contrary to popular belief, we do not hate Markit or its PMIs. We just do not trust them to inform us about what the economy is up to.
U.S. GDP growth may seem weak relative to previous expansions, but it is unsustainably strong relative to potential.
Foreigners will need access to high-quality yuan assets—liquid and market-priced—if they are to be induced to hold yuan reserves.