The possible need for policy to get restrictive, not just neutral, is likely to become a regular talking point for Fed officials in the months ahead.
HFE clients are invited to join us Wednesday, May 16, for this in-depth assessment of the global economy and markets, followed by a question and answer session.
Contrary to popular belief, we do not hate Markit or its PMIs. We just do not trust them to inform us about what the economy is up to.
U.S. GDP growth may seem weak relative to previous expansions, but it is unsustainably strong relative to potential.
Foreigners will need access to high-quality yuan assets—liquid and market-priced—if they are to be induced to hold yuan reserves.
Could a sales tax hike in October 2019 help the BoJ finally reach its inflation goal?
Could a rise in the U.S. labor market participation rate help stop the uptrend in inflation? Not likely.
There is no way to know the precise level, and it can change over time.
Japan’s economy faces a cyclical threat from a massive inventory run-up, on top of its secular decay due to depopulation.
With under a year to go and no part of any agreement nailed down, things are not going well. It is time to speak to the consequences of that.