Survey data in the United States are booming, but the U.S. economy is not. Jim O’Sullivan says the survey data have been distorted by increased partisanship in how respondents answer questions.
Everything we know about economics suggests that everyone should want something if it does not cost anything. For most of us, however, that inclination is quick to pass, replaced by more pragmatic assessments.
For us, the key distinction between a depression and a recession is that a recession is a cyclical contraction of the economy that is both self-correcting and repeating.
Our advice is to discount any weakness in the employment unless it is corroborated by a clear-cut uptrend in jobless claims.
The longest U.S. expansion on record is 120 months, running from 1991 to 2001. To surpass that mark, the current expansion, which started in June 2009, would have to last until the summer of 2019.
The CPI rises every time there is inflation and falls when there is deflation, but every change in the CPI is not due to inflation or deflation.