Japan’s economy faces a cyclical threat from a massive inventory run-up, on top of its secular decay due to depopulation.
Category Archives: Insights
Webinar: Brexit Transition—The Bitter Truth
With under a year to go and no part of any agreement nailed down, things are not going well. It is time to speak to the consequences of that.
Gauging the impact of oil prices, currencies on inflation
How much do changes in oil prices and exchange rates affect inflation? Not much.
Productivity will not bail out Japan’s economy
What good are productivity gains when demand is doomed to shrink with the population?
Webinar: U.S. Expansion—Getting Better With Age Or Overly Stimulated?
When should we start worrying about recession risks? What should we be watching? Jim O’Sullivan will have the answers.
China: Is 6.9% GDP growth fast enough?
China’s GDP growth picked up to 6.9% in 2017 from 6.7% in 2016. That is surely better, but is it good enough? And what does it mean for investors?
Growth is not a crime
Our bet is that the ECB will maintain accommodative monetary conditions into 2019 at least.
Preparing for Brexit: A DIY model of supply-side shocks
What smart economists learned in the 1970s will serve the BoE well when it responds to Brexit shocks.
U.S. survey data: cutting through the politics
Survey data in the United States are booming, but the U.S. economy is not. Jim O’Sullivan says the survey data have been distorted by increased partisanship in how respondents answer questions.
When you can’t give money away…
Everything we know about economics suggests that everyone should want something if it does not cost anything. For most of us, however, that inclination is quick to pass, replaced by more pragmatic assessments.