Exaggerated U.S. recession fears?
We are skeptical of the signal from the yield curve now given the likely distortion from non-U.S. as well as U.S. QE and negative bond yields in much of the world.
Webinar: Negative Yields, Trade Wars & More
Join Carl Weinberg and Jim O'Sullivan for an assessment of the U.S. and global economies as 2019 comes to a close.
Mid-Cycle Adjustment?
The case for rate cuts is much weaker now than in previous mid-cycle Fed easings.
Get the most out of HFE on Bloomberg
Some tips from our in-house Bloomberg expert on how to leverage the platform to access HFE research.
Why negative interest rates don’t work
A tree is growing in the forest… when do you cut it down to harvest its wood? When it dies and threatens to fall on your house.
Depopulating economy = falling wages?
In Japan's depopulating economy, productivity is falling—not rising—and so are wages.
U.S. inflation data call for modest—not major—Fed easing
The latest data, and still-accommodative financial conditions, suggest the Fed does not have to cut rates aggressively.
Surveys We Trust
Reliable surveys confirm the Euro Zone economy is not recovering.
Time to lose sleep over world trade slowdown?
We are on the alert for more bad global economic news in the months ahead if the drop in world trade continues.
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